六盘山全连接模型

六盘山模型修订结果

1. 将预测结果改为月总雨量

   • 2019 real rainfall: 90.82727272727271

   • 2019 pred rainfall: 64.91845

   • real is bigger than pred by: 0.399098000092971

   • 201901-07 real rainfall: 71.31428571428572

   • 201901-07 pred rainfall: 54.772762

   • real is bigger than pred by : 0.30200272400958267

   • 201908-11 real rainfall: 124.97499999999998

   • 201908-11 pred rainfall: 82.67342

   • real is bigger than pred by : 0.5116707922014149 R-square is 0.5464765233505124 可以看出模型效果仍然较差

2. 加入隆德气象站的降雨量做区域回归

   • 2019 real rainfall: 90.82727272727271

   • 2019 pred rainfall: 85.41015

   • real is bigger than pred by: 0.06342482941611867

   • 201901-07 real rainfall: 71.31428571428572

   • 201901-07 pred rainfall: 63.57319

   • real is bigger than pred by : 0.12176669254588507

   • 201908-11 real rainfall: 124.97499999999998

   • 201908-11 pred rainfall: 123.62481

   • real is bigger than pred by : 0.01092168103545885 可以看出模型显著提升了

3. 再加入泾源气象站的雨量

   • 2019 real rainfall: 90.82727272727271

   • 2019 pred rainfall: 89.10617

   • real is bigger than pred by: 0.01931518390183277

   • 201901-07 real rainfall: 71.31428571428572

   • 201901-07 pred rainfall: 66.479385

   • real is bigger than pred by : 0.07272781345623461

   • 201908-11 real rainfall: 124.97499999999998

   • 201908-11 pred rainfall: 128.70303

   • real is bigger than pred by : -0.028966166122208436 模型进一步提升

4. 按照新模型，对2020年进行预测

   • 2020 real rainfall: 85.80909090909086

   • 2020 pred rainfall: 79.06396

   • real is bigger than pred by: 0.08531237155823371

   • 202001-07 real rainfall: 64.95714285714283

   • 202001-07 pred rainfall: 64.81861

   • real is bigger than pred by : 0.002137221234397587

   • 202008-11 real rainfall: 122.29999999999993

   • 202008-11 pred rainfall: 103.9933

   • real is bigger than pred by : 0.17603728666581983 可以看到：

     1. 模型对2019年下半年的真实降雨实际是低于预测值的

     2. 但是在2020年下半年真实降雨高了17.6%，-2%到+17.6%可以看出人工降雨的效果

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